Reflecting on the recent Virginia gubernatorial election and the repeated failures of the replacement of a decent Health Care Bill, Republicans have reason to worry about their foothold in D.C. The foremost Republican figure, President Trump, has a looming influence, direct or indirect, that plays a role in many elections. This was especially true with the election in Virginia and it will be entirely applicable wit
h the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate up for re-election next year. The Republican gubernatorial candidate in Virginia, Ed Gillespie, lost the election by an 8.9% margin and received 231,715 less votes than his Democratic opponent, Ralph Northam. Stephen Farnsworth, a political analyst for the University of Mary Washington, commented on Gillespie’s strategies by saying that he “campaigned like Donald Trump and was punished by the voters of Virginia for doing so.”
As Farnsworth points out, Gillespie chose an interesting campaign strategy that ultimately helped and hurt his race. On one hand, he benefitted from not accepting the endorsement of Donald Trump, most likely out of fear that an endorsement of the President would sink his campaign. Ironically, Gillespie hurt his campaign by acting much like President Trump which Virginians did not like, as they already had distaste for the President. Because of this interesting concoction of poorly chosen ingredients, Gillespie fell behind significantly and gave into Northam.
In our unit on Parties and Elections, we noted that the main goal of political parties is to win elections so that the party can take control and then create their own legislation. If we keep this notion in mind, the Virginia election could foreshadow a turn in the tide against Republicans. Virginia is a well-known swing state for Presidential elections and for the past ten elections, since 1980, Virginia has voted for the winning candidate seven times. While this information may not have as much correlation as the Democrats would like, nor as much importance as the Republicans ought to pay attention to, the results could signify a retaliation against Republicans. Furthermore, it is not only retaliation against Republicans but as well against Trump who, in the eyes of some people, has tainted the image of the Right. If this gubernatorial election holds any influence over future elections, then the Republicans ought to keep their wits about them. Once again, Ralph Northam won by a significant margin and left Gillespie in the dust, so to speak. As of now the Republicans are balanced precariously in the eyes of the people. If they fall out of favor, then the doors are left wide open for Democrats to rush into the Legislative branch and gain majority.
In speaking about approval of the people and parties, President Trump’s approval rating currently sits at 38.3% while his disapproval rating stands at 56.5%; that’s a margin of 18.2%. This steady decline of approval of the President shows an increasing frustration of the people in the shortcomings of the executive branch. The frustration then trickles down from the President to the Republican Party and that is where the uncertainty and trouble of the future arises. If the Republicans, including Trump, cannot construct a passable Healthcare bill, among other items on their agenda, then the trend that we observed in Virginia is likely a fair predictor of America’s future and surely a blow to Republicans everywhere.
21st Century Citizenship 